Nº 108 (November, 2010). Javier Alejo.

“Transición demográfica y pobreza en América Latina. Un análisis de microsimulaciones”.

Empirical literature has found evidence of a trend towards an aging population in Latin America. This paper analyzes the impact of demographic changes on poverty using population projections for the United Nations with different scenarios in the educational structure. The methodology used in this paper is econometric microsimulation. Its main innovation is to propose the empirical maximum likelihood method as a strategy for the simulation of the weights. Under all the assumptions of the simulation model, the results suggest that if the population dynamics remain as they are, poverty levels will be reduced. However, the quantitative effect is very weak, leaving a big scope for the planning of economic policies aimed at poverty reduction.