Nº 8 (April, 2004). Federico Cerimedo.

“Duración del desempleo y ciclo económico en la Argentina”.

The economic cycle has an effect on unemployment duration in Argentina. This paper offers several alternatives to quantify this effect by estimating a model for the probability of moving from unemployment to employment using panel data from the Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH). The sample covers the Gran Buenos Aires region for the period 1995-2003. Some of the main findings indicate that in an economy with growth rates of 4%, this transition is 16.2% more likely than during a recession at the same rate. Additionally, the results point out that this effect is not homogenous among sectors. In particular, leaving unemployment is 31% more likely for individuals who were previously employed in the industrial sector than those employed in services.

JEL Code: J6, E32